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“A giant clock hung above our head, and it was ticking” Begin Doctrine and the limits of military counterproliferation

“We shall defend our people with all the means at our disposal. We shall not allow any enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction turned against us. [If not,] another Holocaust would have happened in the history of the Jewish people. Never again, never again!” The words in the  title  and the above  quote  do not belong to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor address Israel’s recent Operation Rising Lion, a sophisticated military and  intelligence  campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile bases, key military personnel, and nuclear scientists. These words were reportedly Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s (1977-1983), following the 1981 strike on the Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad, Iraq, codenamed  Operation Opera  -Israel’s first anticipatory self-defense operation to prevent an adversary from acquiring nuclear weapons. Thus, was born the Begin Doctrine; Israel’s strategic policy of preemptive action of self-defen...

As Iran Recedes, Türkiye Fills the Void

“People who live in glass houses should not throw stones.”           - Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, interview with  Al Jazeera Arabic  on 26 February 2025  Three months later, this strong warning looks less like a threat and more like a prediction.  A decade ago, Iran was the region’s shadow puppeteer, proudly proclaiming its control over  four Arab capitals . However, its projection of power through proxies backfired. Ironically, this helped facilitate the surprise offensive of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, backed by Tehran’s regional rival, Türkiye. Moreover, its archenemy, Israel, has steadily weakened Iran and Hezbollah’s military capabilities in both Lebanon and Syria, especially following Iran-backed Hamas’ deadly cross-border attack on  October 7, 2023,  which indirectly enabled HTS’ takeover of Syria, the indispensable “jewel in the crown” of Iran’s regional network.[Met...

More in common than they admit: Turkey and Israel’s Syrian affair

In his opening speech at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on April 11, 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip  Erdogan  described Israel as a “terrorist state” that threatens regional stability, aiming to “stir up ethnic and religious affiliations in Syria and turn minorities against the government.” Since the fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024, Turkey and Israel have emerged as dominant power brokers in Syria, filling the void left by the diminishing influence of Russia and Iran. This new reality on the ground has significantly worsened the already tense relationship between Turkey and Israel. There is an ongoing debate about the possibility of a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel over Syria, which the media often amplifies into a drumbeat of a forthcoming war. In fact, beneath the noise, both countries display many parallel responses to the developments in Syria and, at times, share overlapping agendas that eventually force them to establish dialogue chann...

Enforced Departures, Anxious Arrivals. A Turkish Diaspora in Israel

By Karel Valansi in Routledge Handbook of Turkey's Diasporas editors: Ayca Arkilic, Banu Senay ABSTRACT  Drawing immigration was one of the main objectives of the newborn State of Israel, and this policy generated a strong pull factor for Jews worldwide. However, the mass emigration from Turkey was a surprise even to Israeli authorities who were not expecting such large numbers from a country where Jews were not expelled from or faced an existential threat. Nearly 40 per cent of Turkey’s Jewish community emigrated to Israel during 1948–1951. This mass migration was Turkey’s second-biggest emigration wave following labour emigration to Europe from the 1960s onwards. Despite its significance, Turkish Jewry is an understudied topic, especially in Turkish migration and diaspora studies. This chapter scrutinises the trajectory and current state of the Turkish Jewish diaspora in Israel. It presents an overview of the subject matter, including the historical background of Turkish Jews, ...

The Importance of Turkey’s Mediation Role

Generally associated with conflict and instability, the Middle East region had been experiencing the most promising time of its history, until October 7, 2023. As the United States’ allies in the Middle East perceived Washington as a less reliable ally, the prominent countries of the region, especially Saudi Arabia, changed their discourse and focused on regionalization, calling for cooperation instead of competition to create a stable, prosperous region. Consequently, its mediation efforts started to attract attention. Saudi Arabia’s ground-breaking re-establishment of diplomatic relations with its arch-rival Iran was an essential pillar in its goal of solving the region’s problems internally. The other leg of this important change was the normalization of the relations with Israel. The normalization between Israel and the Abraham Accords signatory countries continued with Saudi Arabia’s consent, the region’s heavyweight, in the background. The efforts of the Middle Eastern countries ...

Turkey Recap / What comes next for Hamas members in Turkey?

Over the last decade, the far western suburbs of İstanbul have begun to resemble a safe haven for diverse foreign communities, including a  new Afghan diaspora , long-time Syrian refugees and exiled members of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. Among them are also several  senior figures of Hamas , the Islamist militant party governing Gaza which the US, EU and Israel designate as a terrorist group, but Turkey does not. Following the group’s Oct. 7 surprise attack and amid Israel’s bombing campaign with prospects for a “ long and difficult war ” as stated by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, the presence of Hamas members in Turkey will likely come under increasing scrutiny. While the Israeli government is expected to press Ankara to stop hosting Hamas figures, Israel’s mounting military response and the images of human suffering it will produce, have already and will continue to stir Turkish public sentiments, which are by a large majority pro-Palestine. This trend, and a threatened gro...