Ana içeriğe atla

Walking on egg shells (with my comments)

A deal on rapprochement with Ankara, expected to be announced next week, would be one based solely on perceived interests, lacking in affinity and ideological likeness and subject to both external and Turkish domestic pressures.

Turkey is coming into the deal, which according to reports in the Turkish press will be announced on Sunday, in the wake of its disastrous foreign policy, which insists on supporting Islamist forces, and a growing destabilization at home due to the war with the Kurds and the influx of refugees from Syria.
Turkey has terrible relations with many of its Middle Eastern neighbors and is part of the ongoing sectarian wars, with particular attentiveness to and involvement in Syria and Iraq in support of rebel groups.
Because of its backing for Sunni rebels and the Muslim Brotherhood in the region, it has strained ties with the Shi’ite axis of Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and Syria. Furthermore, relations with the status quo Sunni powers of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, with the exception of Islamist-supporting Qatar, are cool.

Ankara’s ties with Europe are also strained because of the massive migration of Middle Easterners and Asians to the European Union via Turkey and the fact that the country is unlikely to gain EU membership any time soon. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism and crackdown on the domestic media and critics are further eroding support for his government in the West.

Turkey has been supporting extremist rebel factions in Syria, including some reports of helping Islamic State. Its fierce opposition to Kurdish forces there, fearing growing Kurdish independence that could affect its own Kurdish problem in the southeast, is another headache for Ankara.


And to top it off, relations with Moscow have plummeted after the Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter jet in November. More than half of Turkey’s gas and 10 percent of its oil come from Russia.

Daniel Pipes, a historian and the president of the Middle East Forum think tank, told The Jerusalem Post that Erdogan’s aggressive policies “have led to bad relations with nearly every important government in the neighborhood and beyond.

“In the effort to dig himself out of this hole, Erdogan has sought selectively to improve ties, including with Israel,” he said. “But this is a purely tactical step that in no way undoes his regime’s anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism; it merely tones these down temporarily – until circumstances change again and they can be amped up.

“In my view, governments favored by this cynical smile treatment, including Israel’s, should no less cynically take advantage of it without the slightest illusion that it indicates a deep or long-term shift,” continued Pipes.

“For Jerusalem, this emphatically means not investing in a gas pipeline to Turkey that would hold it hostage into the distant future,” he argued.

Pipes stressed that as long as Israel does not give up something too big, such as the proposed gas pipeline, if Ankara makes some key, one-time concessions to Israel, such as allowing Israel better representation at NATO, “then I can see it worthwhile for Jerusalem to smile back.”

But Erdogan’s Islamist ideology and coziness with radical groups such as Hamas are likely to get in the way of the relationship with Israel, sooner or later.

In fact, it is still possible that the deal with Israel will fall through because of Turkey’s reluctance to break off relations with Hamas. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday that Turkey will continue to meet with the Palestinian terrorist group. All it would take is another Israeli war in Gaza against Hamas or any other incident to blow the hood off the agreement and for the anger-prone Erdogan to start making inflammatory statements or rash decisions.

Muhammed Ammash, a researcher and project officer at the Istanbul-based Global Political Trends Center, told the Post that even after a deal, “relations would remain fragile mainly because of the Palestinian question, and there will be a need for some time to rebuild mutual confidence and trust.

“One of the issues Turkey wants to resolve is the blockade of Gaza,” he said, adding that the Palestinians understand that a rapprochement would be beneficial for them as well, since Turkey can act in their arena only after normalizing relations with Israel.

“Turkey could contribute to solving the conflict and help with domestic issues in Palestine,” said Ammash.

Asked if relations would be too fragile to immediately push for building a gas pipeline to Turkey from Israel to export natural gas to Europe, he responded that a pipeline is a possibility since Turkey has a strong interest.

Some in Turkey doubt that a deal is going to be reached.

Karel Valansi, a Turkish Middle East expert who writes for the Jewish Turkish weekly Salom and the T24 news outlet, told the Post that the sense from Turks on a prospective deal is not to jump ahead of themselves, since there have been many false alarms before, but this time it does appear to be for real.

It remains to be seen how Israel and Turkey will come to an agreement on the main obstacle of Hamas and Gaza, she said, adding that if Turkey should drop its previous condition of lifting trade restrictions on Gaza, it would raise the question of what Turkey gained by waiting since 2010 until today to move forward.

Asked if she expects a quick breakup if a deal is struck, she responded that she sees it lasting longer, though admits “it will not be a strategic partnership as it was in the 1990s. There is a lack of trust and I think that will not go away so fast,” she continued, predicting that relations will be based primarily on trade just like it is today.

The Turkish government is highly sensitive to the Palestinian and Armenian issues, and Israel has been cautious on the latter.

As for the Turkish Jewish community, it is “always eager for good relations between Turkey and Israel,” said Valansi.

Regarding the Palestinian file, “an operation in Gaza might ruin any improvement in relations that would come about in a deal,” she added.

Therefore, any agreement between the two countries would be like walking on eggshells, with the chance of falling apart at any moment.

It will be in the interest of Hamas and other radical forces to torpedo the deal by creating a violent confrontation with Israel.

Jerusalem Post, 25 June 2016





Yorumlar

Bu blogdaki popüler yayınlar

Hamas, İngiltere ve Türkiye

İngiltere, Hamas'ın terör örgütü ilan edilmesi için yasal sürecin başlatıldığını duyurdu. Söz konusu değişiklik hafta içinde parlamentoya sunulacak. Hamas'ın silahlı kanadı olan İzzeddin el-Kassam Tugayları, Terörizm Kanunu kapsamında 2001’den bu yana yasak kapsamındaydı ancak bu yasak Hamas’ın siyasi kanadı için geçerli değildi. İngiltere İçişleri Bakanı Priti Patel’in Washington ziyareti sırasında açıkladığı değişikle Hamas’ın askeri ve siyasi kanadı arasındaki suni ayırım ortadan kaldırılmış oldu. Böylece İngiltere; ABD, Kanada, Japonya ve AB ile aynı çizgide buluşmuş oldu. 1987 yılında, Birinci İntifada’nın ilk günlerinde kurulan Hamas’ın başlıca amacı İsrail, Batı Şeria ve Gazze’nin tamamında İslami bir devlet kurmak. Fikirleri Müslüman Kardeşler’in temel öğretilerine dayanan Hamas, silahlı mücadeleyi merkeze alan bir yapıya sahip. Askeri kanadı İzzeddin el-Kassam Tugayları’nın kurulmasının ardından güçlenen Hamas, Filistin devletinin kurulabilmesi için silahlı direnişi d

Sadece o guguklu saat miydi çalınan?

Bu topraklarda yüzyıllar geçti ancak Yahudiler, yabancı, dikkat edilmesi gereken unsur ve hakaret nesnesi olmaktan çıkarılmadı. Oysa hepimiz bir yerlerden göç etmedik mi? Göç edip bu topraklara vatan demedik mi? Pencerenin hemen önüne kurulmuş altın renkli bir gramofon avluyu içli bir şarkı ile dolduruyor. Avludaki kadınlar ise hem iş yapıyor hem de şarkıya eşlik ediyorlar. O sırada Matilda süpürge satıcısını geçip merdivenleri iniyor. Şarkıyı duyduğunda ise duruyor, duygulanıyor. Bu şarkı onu çok eskilere götürüyor. Taş duvara dayanıp şarkıya kendini kaptırıyor… O sırada merdivenleri inen Hasan Matilda'yı görüp duraksıyor. O da sözlerini anlamadığı şarkıdan etkilenmiş besbelli. "Ne güzel şarkıymış" diyor, "anamın bizi uyuturken ki ninnilerine benziyor." Matilda açıklamaya çalışıyor; "eski bir Sefarad şarkısı bu". Anlamadığını fark edince de devam ediyor; "Sefarad yüzyıllar önce buraya göç eden Yahudiler, benim gibi" diyor. Hasan Matilda'

İsrail´in başı Pegasus ile dertte

ABD ile İsrail’in ilişkileri Biden yönetimi ile birlikte sıkıntılı bir süreçten geçiyor. Filistinlilerle ilişkilerini iyileştirmek amacını seçim kampanyasında da belirten Biden, Trump’ın aksine, Filistin Yönetimi’ne mali yardıma yeniden başlamış, Birleşmiş Milletler Filistinli Mültecilere Yardım Ajansı UNRWA programları için desteğini yinelemişti. Şimdi ise Kudüs’teki  Filistin   konsolosluğunun yeniden açılması tartışılıyor. İsrail ise Kudüs’ün ebedi, bölünmez başkenti olduğunu söylüyor ve bu adımı şehirdeki egemenliğine karşı bir darbe olarak görüyor. Geçtiğimiz hafta ikili ilişkiler bir darbe daha aldı. ABD Ticaret Bakanlığı, İsrail merkezli NSO ve Candiru adlı siber istihbarat şirketlerini -Amerikan ulusal güvenliğine dış politika çıkarlarına aykırı faaliyetleri nedeniyle- yaptırım listesine ekledi. Bu iki şirketin kara listeye alınması demek, ABD’de bu iki şirketle herhangi bir ticari ilişkinin kurulmasının yasaklaması anlamına geliyor. Buradaki kilit konu ise bu iki firmanın herh